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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-30T01:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24854/-1
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in SWPC_CAT. The source eruption starts around 2023-04-30T19:00Z in the vicinity of AR 3289 (approximately N20E25) and AR 3292 (approximately N15E30) and can be best seen as opening field lines, faint EUV wave, and some post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines can also be seen on the limb in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in the NE of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Only based on field components due to suspect temperature/density data, ACE/DSCOVR may have observed a glancing blow of this CME starting around 2023-05-03T09:12. This corresponds to the start of an extended period of smooth field components but little rotation. A potential end of this CME can be 2023-05-05T06:05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-03T09:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-03T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/24861/1
Model Inputs:
2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=30.0, Speed=339.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2023-04-30T14:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-05-03T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-05-03T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230430_141900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 63.38 hour(s)
Difference: -10.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-04-30T17:49Z

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